The Dunn Crystal Ball

At the risk of losing all credibility, I thought I'd write something on the most controversial figure in Redsland: Adam Dunn. MLB.com has an article today entitled "Will Anyone Hit 60 Homeruns?" And I got to thinking, could Dunn ever hit 60? Now, before you dismiss this as the stupidest idea ever and that you've finally found conclusive proof that girls will never know as much about baseball as boys, hear me out.

Adam Dunn is horrible in September (career total 20 HRs vs. 35 (avg.) in other months). Last year was more horrendous than ever (2). He also tends to hit fewer homers in the second half than the first. That alone should make a person say he can never hit 60. But why is he so awful in September? Is he tired? What if he got more rest during the season?

Dunn 1st half, 2nd half home run splits:

2006: 28, 12
2005: 23, 17
2004: 25, 21
2003: 25, 2 (injured)
2002: 13, 13

I have my suspicions that Dunn was more affected by Austin's departure than anyone realizes. If in September 2006 he had had stayed more consistent (a month by month breakdown is 9,8,9,5,7,2) with the rest of the season, even hitting 5 more, the question of 60 wouldn't seem so farfetched. You can see he was nearly on pace for 60 in the first half of the season. If he could just get it together in the second half of a season...The guy's only 27 - he's just hitting the prime years of his career. He seems to be regressing, but as there is no logical reason for this regression, I don't think it is something to be worried about.

I may be one of the few that think Dunn is going to have a great 2007 (based on absolutely nothing but a feeling), but he isn't going to be hitting 60 out this year. Regardless, Dunn is a player that could someday hit that magic mark if he could just solve his September woes.